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2016
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2018
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PNAS
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This paper recently announced that a 15-kilometer crater, hidden beneath a layer of volcanic rock in southern Laos, may be the source of the Australasian strewn field. But more research will be required before we know for certain.
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2020
H. J. Melosh
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2008
Nick Bostrom & Milan M. Cirkovic
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This is among the most comprehensive books on the topic of civilization-ending threats. While my video is explicitly about human extinction, this book also covers catastrophic near-extinction events. However, due to its age, some of the information is a bit outdated. It's a good read nonetheless.
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2002
Michael Paine & Benny Peiser
Bioastronomy 2002: Life Among the Stars
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Feb 26, 2015
Daniel Engber
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1985
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The claim that an impact with a 10-kilometer-sized (or larger) object would be more energetic than the simultaneous detonation of billions of atomic bombs refers to the two bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. This document states that Little Boy (Hiroshima) had a yield of 6.276×10¹³ J while Fat Man (Nagasaki) had a yield of 8.786×10¹³ J. Meanwhile,
reference #11 estimates the kinetic energy of the Chicxulub impact was between 1.3×10²⁴ J and 5.8×10²⁵ J. That means the impact was between 15-924 billion times more energetic than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
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2014
Hector Javier Durand-Manterola & Guadalupe Cordero-Tercero
arXiv
According to this paper, the estimated size of the Chicxulub impactor ranges between 10-80 kilometers depending on factors such as velocity, angle of impact, and composition of the impactor. However, most other estimates land somewhere near the lower end of that range.
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1997
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1
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2005
Gareth S. Collins, H. Jay Melosh, & Robert A. Marcus
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6
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Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, & Gareth Collins
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Center for Near Earth Object Studies
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Jet Propulsion Laboratory
The Small-Body Database operated by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory contains information about most asteroids and comets. This reference will query the database for all near-earth objects. When this video was made, the query returned 25 016 results, but new objects are discovered every year. Only a small fraction of these objects have Earth-crossing orbits. The vast majority do not pose a threat.
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Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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May 4, 1983
Brian G. Marsden
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May 6, 1983
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This 3D visualization of the close approach provides a good illustration of the distances involved.
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Jul 26, 2019
Allyson Chiu
The Washington Post
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2005
David Jewitt
The Astronomical Journal
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1
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2013
David Jewitt
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2005
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2004
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Oct 18, 2004
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Nature News
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Jet Propulsion Laboratory
The Small-Body Database operated by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory contains information about most asteroids and comets. This reference will query the database for damocloids as defined by David Jewitt in
reference #18. When this video was made, the query returned 184 results.
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2008
Brian D. Fields, Themis Athanassiadou, & Scott R. Johnson
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2018
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Apr 12, 2018
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May 31, 2019
NASA Hubble Space Telescope
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2011
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2010
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2009
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2005
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The Astrophysical Journal
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1
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2016
Steven M. Stanley
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The percentage of species that went extinct during the five major mass extinctions are difficult to estimate. They can vary quite significantly between sources. The percentages used in the video are based on this paper as it appears to be the most recent.
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2004
A.L. Melott, B.S. Lieberman, C.M. Laird, et al.
International Journal of Astrobiology
3
1
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Sep 24, 2003
Philip Ball
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2006
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1998
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2014
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Jul 19, 2013
Susanna Kohler
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2016
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Oct 10, 2016
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2017
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Nov 19, 2018
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2008
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2017
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2000
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2015
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2018
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2020
Toby Ord
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This book was a huge influence on the making of this video. The author pays special attention to existential risks and not just catastrophic ones. Highly recommended.
-
The estimated death toll for the Black Death differs a great deal between sources. Furthermore, estimates often differ in scope. Some include all plague outbreaks throughout human history. Others focus exclusively on the Black Death pandemic that primarily ravaged Europe between roughly 1346 and 1353 CE. The "25-60%" and "20-70 million" ranges used in the video were informed by the three sources listed below. Especially
reference #51c.
-
2004
Ole J. Benedictow
The Boydell Press
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This book explains why it is so difficult to estimate an accurate death toll for the Black Death and why different sources give such different figures.
-
2012
Joseph P. Byrne
ABC-CLIO
45
-
2017
Luke Muehlhauser
While not an academic source, it is one of the more recent and thoroughly researched attempts at estimating a death toll. The author also clarifies that the oft-repeated 200 million figure refers to the collective death toll of ALL plague outbreaks, not just the Black Death.
-
The death toll of the Columbian exchange is virtually impossible to estimate. No one knows how large the indigenous population was before the European colonization of the Americas. The "~55 million" figure used in the video is merely a best guess and does not differentiate between causes of death. But the majority of deaths were likely due to disease.
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2010
Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian
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24
2
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2019
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Much like the Black Death, the death toll for the Spanish Flu is difficult to estimate. Accurate record keeping was not actively practices at the time of the outbreak and was further impeded by World War I. There are also discrepancies between the estimated number of infections and case fatality rates. Estimates for case fatality rates ranges from 2% at the lower end and 20% at the upper end. The figures used in the video were all informed by the sources listed below.
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2006
Jeffery K. Taubenberger & David M. Morens
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12
1
15-22
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2018
Peter Spreeuwenberg, Madelon Kroneman, & John Paget
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12
2561-2567
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2017
World Health Organization
26
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Apr 11, 2018
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Feb 24, 2020
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2006
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Dec 12, 2018
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There have been numerous laboratory escapes over the past few decades. The references below are only a few examples. See
reference #50 and
reference #66 for a more extensive list.
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2004
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Mar 20, 2019
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Vox
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Jul 28, 2005
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Nov 5, 2012
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Oct 31, 2016
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2014
Nick Bostrom
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This book is essential reading if you want to gain a better understanding of the potential risks posed by artificial intelligence.
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2018
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Nov 1, 2018
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Apr 24, 2019
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Global Footprint Network
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2014
Core Writing Team, Rajendra K. Pachauri, & Leo Meyer
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Jan 15, 2020
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2020
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